When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?
48
1.1kṀ9300
2050
54%
Never, or later than 2050.
49%
By 2050
40%
By 2040
30%
By 2035
8%
By 2030

Context:
In the recent Dwarkesh Patel interview, Paul Christiano gave an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere a chance of 15% by 2030 and 40% by 2040.

Is this plausible?

Question:
When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?

Notes:
- I will not bet in this market.
- Answers will resolve at the date is hit, or we develop AI.
- I make rulings on my markets based on the spirit of the question, not the strict rules as written.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy