When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?
48
1.1kṀ93002050
54%
Never, or later than 2050.
49%
By 2050
40%
By 2040
30%
By 2035
8%
By 2030
Context:
In the recent Dwarkesh Patel interview, Paul Christiano gave an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere a chance of 15% by 2030 and 40% by 2040.
Is this plausible?
Question:
When we will have an AI capable of building a Dyson Sphere?
Notes:
- I will not bet in this market.
- Answers will resolve at the date is hit, or we develop AI.
- I make rulings on my markets based on the spirit of the question, not the strict rules as written.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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