This resolves positively if Nakamura is able to qualify and play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024

If Nakamura qualifies for but declines to partipate in the tournament, it will resolve negatively.

If Nakamura is selected by FIDE as a replacement in the tournament, without qualifying directly, this will still resolve positively.

This market closes at the start of the candidates tournament. If Nakamura, somehow, participates in the tournament and is paired in the first round, but never manages to play a match due to sickness, protest, or other factors, it will resolve negatively. This market will resolve negatively after the first round of the tournament occuring without Nakamura being a listed player, or positively upon Nakamura playing a match in the tournament.