Will Hikaru Nakamura ever become World Chess Champion?

Hikaru Nakamura is one of the top chess players in the world right now. Will he ever become world champion?



This market will resolve YES when/if Hikaru Nakamura becomes world chess champion.

This market will resolve NO when/if I determine that Hikaru Nakamura has become irrelevant to the world chess championship. Examples of this would be that Hikaru has retired or he has stopped competing in the candidates tournament. If he doesn't qualify for the candidates any year but he is still attempting to qualify for future candidates tournaments, this market will not resolve at that point.


Since the candidates tournament reformatted to an 8 player double round-robin tournament in 2013, the oldest player to have competed in that tournament has been 46 years old (Viswanathan Anand 2016). I expect that Hikaru will likely become irrelevant by the time he reaches 50 years of age. Due to this, I will put the expiration date at his 50th birthday. However, if he is still actively and successfully making his way to the candidates tournament at that point, I may push the expiration out further. That is to be determined by future me.

I will allow myself to bet on this market, but I currently don't know which way I would bet. I will probably give the market some time to fluctuate before making a decision.

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