Resolves YES if there is substantial movement during the conclave towards the eventual selection.
This means that between the start of the conclave and the end of the conclave, the odds of the eventual selection on Polymarket should rise by (rounded to) 5% or greater (in absolute terms, not relative terms).
I will use the Polymarket visualization (which I believe is tied to an average of the ask-bid prices?).
For example, if the eventual Pope goes from 2-7%, or from 35-40%, that would resolve as YES.
CLARIFYING EDIT: If they go from 2 to 7 and back to 2 before the announcement, that will not be sufficient. I’m looking for the difference between the odds at sequestration time and the odds when the news is announced (or likely an hour before).
I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following baseline odds from Polymarket, stated as being from 'Just before sequestering':
Parolin: 32%
Tagle: 19.5%
Zuppi: 9.6%
Pizzaballa: 8.7%
Turkson: 5.65%
Erdo: 6.6%
Aveline: 4.9%
Besungu: 2%
Sarah: 2.55%
de Mendonca: 1.65%
Grech: 1.75%
Arborelius: 1.5%
Everyone else below 1%
Additionally, the creator clarified how the 'rounded to 5%' increase requirement will be interpreted, noting it depends on the significant figures Polymarket displays for the final odds:
If Polymarket displays the eventual winner's final odds as an integer (e.g., using the example of starting odds at 19.5% and final odds displayed as 24%): * The calculated increase is 4.5% (24% - 19.5%). * The creator states this "rounds up to 5", thus meeting the criteria for a YES resolution.
If Polymarket displays the eventual winner's final odds with a decimal (e.g., using the example of starting odds at 19.5% and final odds displayed as 24.1%): * The calculated increase is 4.6% (24.1% - 19.5%). * The creator indicated that such an increase (which they calculated as 4.7% in their example) "is less than 5!", implying this would NOT be sufficient for a YES resolution. * This suggests that if Polymarket displays final odds with decimal precision, the unrounded increase must be 5.0% or greater to satisfy the condition.
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Just before sequestering, these were the odds on Polymarket
Parolin: 32
Tagle: 19.5
Zuppi: 9.6
Pizzaballa: 8.7
Turkson: 5.65
Erdo: 6.6
Aveline: 4.9
Besungu: 2
Sarah: 2.55
de Mendonca: 1.65
Grech: 1.75
Arborelius: 1.5
Everyone else below 1
If the eventual winner is at least 5% higher at the end of the conclave, this resolves YES.
I said "rounded to" in the criteria, but I guess this is slightly ambiguous: I will round it based on the sig figs I am given by Polymarket.
So, for example, Tagle is at 19.5 now. If he ends up at 24, I'm not given a decimal point, so that would be 4.5 which rounds up to 5. However, if, say, Polymarket displays his odds as 24.1, I would know that it is 4.6 which is less than 5! Does that make sense @traders ?
@Balasar yep that's definitely correct! But there's also not really an easy way of operationalizing the premise, so this is the best I could think of
@Balasar This is my chief concern. Vatican enthusiasts can calibrate a lot just based on how long the conclave goes on. A large movement in the market is far more likely to be the result of that, than of insider info being released -during- the conclave, which is swept of electronic devices, and the electors bound by solemn oath.
Want to make the same market with a ~2040 expiration in case we get a rumored vote count years later?
Like if Scola's odds had jumped in 2013,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_papal_conclave#Results_of_the_ballots
Edit: although I guess your edit would rule that out.
@gamedev considering that the front runner is under 30% currently, yes, that would be a massive signal. Someone going from, say, 20 to 25% over the course of the conclave is likely due to some information. And any smart bettors won’t drive up the odds by like 25% unless they’re crazy.
@bens I'm not sure I'm totally convinced, but I reread your resolution description and its more logical than my initial lazy skim had me thinking. Betting yes mainly because I think there are many variables that could cause a 5% spike in the eventual successor during conclave than insider trading alone