Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuelan territory by January 31st, 2026. Resolution will be determined by credible news reports confirming her entry into Venezuela. The market resolves NO if she does not enter by the deadline.
Background
Nicolás Maduro was detained by US forces on January 3, 2026, creating a power vacuum in Venezuela. Machado won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and is likely to be a successor to the ousted authoritarian Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. Shortly after the presidential election, Machado announced that she had gone into hiding, citing fears for her life and freedom under the Maduro government. Machado undertook a dangerous sea crossing to the Dutch island of Curaçao and was then taken to Curaçao, where she continued by air to attend her Nobel Prize ceremony in December 2025. Machado has previously said she intends to return to Venezuela.
I will not bet in this market, to remain as objective as possible. If there is doubt or gray area, I may resolve to a PROB or to my best judgment.
1,000She cannot enter, as she might put under the risk the CIA activities in Venezuela. Venezuela and Colombia are regions where coca plants are grown, and the U.S. goal in the region is to place drug lords under CIA control, as was in the past: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_drug_trafficking_allegations.
Corina Machado may be supported by other players, but she would definitely not bring stability to U.S.–Venezuela relations.