Resolves YES if at the end of July, to my judgment, the consensus of reporting indicates that it is more likely than not that the Iranian nuclear site of Fordow has been put out of commission, through air strikes, sabotage, etc.
Inspired by @PeterWildeford ’s blog post:
and reporting from mainstream media such as Axios:
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/14/iran-nuclear-facilities-fordow-israel-strike
Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A commitment or deal to put Fordow out of commission is not sufficient for a YES resolution. There must be consensus reporting that the site is actually out of commission (e.g. "Fordow has halted centrifuges and is under UN monitoring currently").
Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A distinction is made between the plant being out of commission versus being temporarily paused during negotiations.
An example of what would likely resolve YES is reporting that it is “confirmed by UN inspectors that no enrichment is currently taking place”.
An example of what would resolve NO is reporting that “Iran has said they will pause enrichment while brokering a ceasefire”.
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Seems pretty difficult: https://www.axios.com/2025/06/14/iran-nuclear-facilities-fordow-israel-strike
@nathanwei umm, only if consensus reporting indicates its actually “out of commission”, not just “committed to be” or something. Like, an article being like “Fordow has halted centrifuges and is under UN monitoring currently” or something.
@bens OK, so we need more details what does & doesn't count. It's very possible that Iran will agree to some deal that involves inspections, but exactly what do we need the inspectors to confirm? Is "no ongoing uranium enrichment" enough?
@AhronMaline I don’t want to over-specify but anything that to my judgment means the plant is “out of commission”, and not just “paused during negotiations” or something. Like, “confirmed by UN inspectors that no enrichment is currently taking place” would probably qualify but “Iran has said they will pause enrichment while brokering a ceasefire” or something would not.