https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/06/14/middleeast/iran-israel-nuclear-facilities-damage-impact-intl
Israel claims to have caused significant damage to some of Iran's key nuclear sites, but Fordow still appears to be mostly unscathed.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they are resolving this market to YES. See their comment for the full reasoning.
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I'm going to count this as YES, though I hadn't really anticipated the US getting involved when I made this market:
If what I’m reading on the internet about the GBU-72 is correct, it can be carried by an F-15 and penetrate more than 40 meters of earth, which is halfway to the Fordow main hall. So they should easily be able to hit the entrance tunnels, or might get the main chamber with a salvo of bombs in the same spot.
@FergusArgyll Yeah, not that clear that even the US's largest bomb would work here.
Ted Postol says it won't work:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TriASB-F5UY
another analysis:
https://x.com/gbrumfiel/status/1935090701588455617
o3's answer:
https://chatgpt.com/share/6856173d-ad50-8003-80aa-8c9fdbf036f2