Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025? (Freely accessible models only)
23
100Ṁ473
Dec 31
32%
chance

Based on this tweet from Spencer Schiff:

https://x.com/spencerkschiff/status/1910106368205336769?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg

Resolves YES if a mainstream AI model (so like, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, DeepSeek) can repeatedly solve this benchmark, using this image and other similar ones I draw. I will be the judge of this (so please do not lobby me with your own attempts, except to alert me to the likelihood that a particular model can do this so I can try it for myself).

“Solving the benchmark” means being able to match the names to the colors of the stick figures, repeatedly and with simple prompts.

I’m not paying any money, so must be the free version of an AI model for me to verify! Again… FREE VERSION!

By the end of the year!

The image for reference in case the tweet is deleted:

…and here is what ChatGPT gives me now:

…and Gemini 2.5

I will not bet in this market to remain objective.

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@bens ahaha was about to share this

it is fascinating how bad models are at this test

I'll make a version where api calls for less than a few $ are allowed if that is ok. i think freeness affects the question a fair bit and makes a bigger % of the question dependent on stuff like which labs decide to offer frontier models for free which i'd rather isolate from the specific capabilities question

@Bayesian ya that's fair, I mainly just didn't want to litigate something where someone was claiming some paywalled AI could do it and was sending screenshots of their tests.

High taste market

Is this going to be one of those "it has to do it 20/20 times" things?

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