Who will the next "consensus" polling aggregator be?
15
200Ṁ2762026
19%
Silver Bulletin (or similar Nate Silver-ran company)
1.5%
Polymarket
1.9%
Kalshi
1.4%
Manifold
11%
RealClear Politics
1.4%
538
19%
THERE IS NO CONSENSUS AGGREGATOR
45%
News is that 538 is getting shut down by ABC/Disney. What company (if any) will fulfill this role by the end of 2026?
At the end of 2026, I will assess which polling aggregators are being used by major publications, bloggers, tv shows on the midterms, etc...
If there are, say, 2 very clearly tied polling aggregators, this could resolve 50/50 (or 33/33/33). However, I am incentivized to pick just one if at all possible.
Resolves just before the 2026 midterms. Resolution may be subjective so I will not bet in this market, obviously.
If there is not even a single company/polling aggregator that could qualify as a "consensus aggregator", resolves to "THERE IS NO CONSENSUS AGGREGATOR".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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