Resolution criteria

Honduras formally recognized Taiwan until March 2023, when it switched recognition to the People's Republic of China. This market resolves YES if Honduras officially reestablishes diplomatic relations with Taiwan (Republic of China) before January 1, 2027. Resolution requires an official announcement from the Honduran government and Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirming the restoration of diplomatic ties. The market resolves NO if no such reestablishment occurs by the deadline.

Background

In 2023, under President Xiomara Castro, Honduras became the latest Latin American country to ditch ties with Taiwan in order to establish relations with China. Since establishing bilateral relations in 2023, China has not delivered on its economic promises to Honduras.

Two years after the Castro administration forged ties with China, multiple Honduran presidential candidates have endorsed restoring relations with Taiwan. Salvador Nasralla, former vice president and current nominee of the centrist Liberal Party, pledged to restore relations with Taiwan if elected president and condemned China for "exploiting" Honduras. The National Party's nominee, Nasry Asfura, has stated that Honduras was "100 times better off" when it was allied with Taiwan. Honduras will hold elections Nov. 30 for president and all 128 seats in Congress.

Considerations

While switching relations from the PRC to Taiwan was a common trend in the 2000s and earlier, the practice largely stopped during Ma Ying-jeou's presidency from 2008 to 2016, and it appeared that once a country dropped Taiwan for the PRC, there was no going back. However, Taiwan becoming a campaign topic signals that political parties feel the Taiwan-PRC issue is divisive enough and approval for Taiwan sufficiently widespread that it can potentially rally political support among the electorate even after a country has broken ties with Taiwan.