Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, by 23:59 Israel time on December 31, 2029, the Government of Israel officially recognizes the Republic of China (Taiwan) as a sovereign state and establishes formal diplomatic relations (e.g., ambassador-level ties). Acceptable evidence includes any of:

  • An official announcement or website update from Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Israel Diplomatic Network showing an “Embassy of Israel in Taiwan” and/or an Israeli “Ambassador to Taiwan.” Example current site for verification: Israel Economic and Cultural Office in Taipei. (new.embassies.gov.il)

  • An official announcement from Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stating the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel, or the appearance of an “Embassy of the Republic of China (Taiwan) in Israel” on MOFA sites. Example current site: Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Tel Aviv. (boca.gov.tw)

  • A joint communiqué by Israel and Taiwan establishing diplomatic relations, posted on either government’s official sites.

• Upgrades short of formal recognition (e.g., new/renamed “representative/economic/cultural” offices, high‑level visits, trade agreements, or use of “Taiwan” in office names without an explicit establishment of diplomatic relations) do not count.

• If Israel recognizes Taiwan while retaining relations with the PRC, this still resolves YES.

• Otherwise resolves NO on January 1, 2030 (Israel time).

Background

• Israel recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and, in the January 24, 1992 joint communiqué, affirmed that the PRC is the sole legal government of China and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the PRC. (fmprc.gov.cn)

• Israel and Taiwan have maintained de facto ties via representative offices since 1993 (Israel Economic and Cultural Office in Taipei; Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Tel Aviv). These are not embassy-level relations. (new.embassies.gov.il)

• Taiwan currently has a small number of formal diplomatic allies (about a dozen as of 2025), underscoring how rare new recognitions are. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• The PRC’s One‑China principle conditions diplomatic relations on not recognizing Taiwan; countries are expected to sever or refrain from ties with Taiwan to have relations with Beijing—so Israeli recognition of Taiwan would likely rupture Israel‑PRC relations. (ls.china-embassy.gov.cn)

• Israel has substantial trade with China (China was Israel’s top source of imports in 2024), raising potential economic costs to any diplomatic break. (english.news.cn)

• Expect media and government sites to change quickly if recognition happens; check the official Israel office in Taipei page and Taiwan MOFA’s Israel page for embassy/ambassador labels and formal communiqués. (new.embassies.gov.il)