How many of the TIME 2025 POTY Finalists will be AI-related?
8
1kṀ2866
Dec 1
25%
0
36%
1
29%
2
5%
3
2%
4
1%
5
1%
Other

The OTHER category will only capture numbers greater than 5 (I may add higher numbers later if there's demand).

I will be slightly liberal with deciding which members of the shortlist are AI-related. For example, people like Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk would count, regardless of whether the Shortlist webpage mentions AI for any of them.

Other members of the short list will only count if TIME clearly links them to AI. For example, the Pope would count if TIME magazine, in the shortlist announcement, mentioned AI in the blurb about him, but not otherwise.

Non-human things would count too, obviously, if there's a clear connection to AI. A "robotaxi", or "the chatbot", or "the data center" or something would obviously count. "The protestor" or "the dating app" or something would likely not (unless it's explicitly mentioned in the blurb/announcement as a connection).

People for whom it's a clear stretch, and for whom AI is not mentioned in the blurb, will not count. For example, Donald Trump or JD Vance would not count just because their administration has done AI stuff or they've talked about AI, unless explicitly referenced in the shortlist website.

If no short list is announced, this resolves N/A.

If there are extreme unpredictable edge-cases, such as like... Bill Gates (without a mention of AI, but with a vague reference to technological progress), or something of that nature, I may resolve 50-50 between two options. In general, I may do a PROB resolution if the situation permits it, and would rather do that than N/A.


I will not bet in this market to remain objective.

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filled a Ṁ10 YES at 14% order

We are all AI related in this curs'ed year

Really wish I could bet on this market, lol...

@bens which options would you buy?

@256 3 and 4, certainly, at these odds... I mean, currently I'd say very likely there's gonna be an "AI" or chatbot finalist, at least one exec finalist among Musk/Huang/Zuckerberg/Ellison/Hassabis, a ~>50% chance the Pope's blurb mentions AI (since he is in the 2025 TIME AI 100), and decent odds for some other AI-related thing or person, idk?

For context, this would have resolved to "1" in 2023 and "2" in 2024!

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