MANIFOLD
How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026?
15
Ṁ1kṀ925
Dec 31
25%
0
31%
1
17%
2
26%
Other

Resolves to the number of “Confirmed” interstellar objects discovered within 2026. If there’s a debate on what constitutes an interstellar object, I will use this Wikipedia article as a resolution source:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object

So far, there has not been much debate about the observed interstellar objects.

Objects that had previously collided with earth and are discovered from archival or geological data would not count for the purposes of this market.

If one is discovered close to the end of the year and doesn’t show up on Wikipedia until 2027, I may wait a bit after market close to see if it’s confirmed (if there’s doubt).

If the Wikipedia article is not kept updated, but interstellar objects are confirmed by other very credible sources (think NASA) are are not disputed, these would count as well.

I may bet in this market. If there’s gray area, I will defer resolution to other mods.

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@creator Are you going to explicitly not-count anything in the category of "ultra-high-energy cosmic ray" (which to my limited understanding some people believe to come from outside the galaxy).

@Eliza presumably we're not counting ordinary cosmic rays, starlight, etc either.

@EvanDaniel this is the kind of thing where someone shows up on December 19 buying ridiculous amounts of the wrong answer without commenting, then spends the last week of the year writing 44 comments about why their position is obviously correct. Better to head them off before they start.

Added liquidity

@bens what if wiki changes the format of the article?

bought Ṁ4 YES

actually the chance to see a new Oumuamua is about 0 or less. But Market contexts tells me that there might be many

@rainydays wdym? There have been interstellar object discovered in 3 of the last 10 years!

@bens

there might me a lot of UFO in 2026

@rainydays what’s a less than zero percent chance?

Actually I’m gonna change this to resolve to Wikipedia, so that I can bet on this market, lol. Traders okay with this? If there’s gray area, I’ll defer to other mods to resolve.

@bens ok, i am the Wiki editor (10y)

@rainydays lol cool! Please don’t rig the article for this market :P

@bens i will loose my privileges if fall into vandalism

Millions, from large to very small. Various spacecraft are already dedicated natural space debris finders of all sizes, including large but distant planets. This question doesn't work.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@AlanTennant hmm, not super relevant for this question, but good point

@bens oh, how so not relevant?

@AlanTennant because microscopic objects or galactic dust or whatever is not pertinent for this question since extrasolar origin can’t be proven

@bens Multiple in their dozens at least, not in our solars system, planets are discovered every year, they are neither.

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