Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of (suspected) deaths from the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ituri_Province_Ebola_epidemic
If the epidemic expands into a pandemic or continues into 2027, the market will be extended as necessary.
The "Other" category means any deaths total larger than the current buckets. I may add more higher buckets from the "Other" category as necessary (if you're new to Manifold, don't worry, if you bet on Other, your shares will automatically be transferred onto any new buckets split off, this is fine and normal).
I will not bet in this market, so as to remain objective if there is gray area in determining the most accurate deaths number.
For a market on the case count total: https://manifold.markets/bens/2026-ebola-epidemic-case-count
1,000People are also trading
@JussiVilleHeiskanen done... although I'm kind of surprised that the odds are that high for >10k given the trajectory
@bens maybe I didn't read the dates right but it seemed the rate middle September was over 500 in a fortnight and accelerating at least at the moment.
@bens Mind if I flick the switch to block Market Creator trading?
I will not bet in this market, so as to remain objective if there is gray area in determining the most accurate deaths number.
@Quroe oop, just did. I keep forgetting this new feature exists. And I just realized I accidentally bet on another one of my markets, not realizing it was my own market (it's a more objective market so hopefully it doesn't matter there)