Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?
11
210Ṁ3522050
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count. English Wikipedia, mainspace.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will "Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?" resolve YES before April, and who will do it?
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?
10% chance
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?
72% chance
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?
64% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026?
42% chance
Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031?
29% chance
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
28% chance
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
17% chance
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
49% chance
will research with at least 50% AI generated content win the Nobel Prize by 2030?
22% chance