beeran's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.25
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when beeran bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
60%
- Destiny said that so far 260 ppl have signed up for the Georgia canvassing event. Since ppl are still signing up, do you think there will be at least 275 canvassers present in Georgia?YESṀ40
- Destiny said that so far 260 ppl have signed up for the Georgia canvassing event. Since ppl are still signing up, do you think there will be at least 275 canvassers present in Georgia?YESṀ10
- Destiny said that so far 260 ppl have signed up for the Georgia canvassing event. Since ppl are still signing up, do you think there will be at least 275 canvassers present in Georgia?YESṀ5