Will Trump balance the budget before 2027?
Will Trump balance the budget before 2027?
35
1kṀ14k2027
1.2%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if the federal government does not have a deficit in one of 2025 or 2026
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filled a Ṁ100 YES at 14% order1mo
I would suggest adding "in 2025 or 2026" to the title. As is, it would imply any time in his presidency, like this market:
@MaxGhenis It seems pretty clear to me that this market is specifically before 2027, not any time in his presidency. 2027 and 2028 and even 2029 are not included
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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