Will Turkey and/or Northern Cyprus occupy the Republic of Cyprus before 2030?

Question

Resolution criteria

If currently unoccupied part of the Republic of  Cyprus is occupied by the Turkish military forces or by the forces of Northern Cyprus before the market end, then the resolution is YES.

If occupation is partial, but more than half of the current area (that is not occupied as of 2024-01-02) of the republic is occupied, then the resolution is also YES.

If the occupation forces are not official military forces of Northern Cyprus  and/or Turkey, but  they are supplied and/or significantly supported by them, then the resolution is YES (e.g. cases similar to Donetsk/Lugansk Peoples Republics after 2014 would also be considered as occupation by Russia for the purposes of this market).

Otherwise the resolution is NO.

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I will bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 14% chance (10 traders, as of Mar 18, 2026).