I won't bet. Resolves subjectively. If I stop using manifold before this market resolves then the mods can do what they wish with it.
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@ShakedKoplewitz Interesting, it would be bananas, but hypernormality has a way of making you feel like it's the way things have always been, and always will be, so I think after 7 years of that every single one of us, including the judge, would lose the ability to recognize that anything odd was happening.
We might instead decide that peoples' response to the events of the early 20s was some sort of mass hysteria, or the beginning of a new arc of progress that we have since settled into, reigned, which we now understand well enough to call normal. (It wont be true)
@Duncn Pandemic, (full-scale) Invasion of another country in Europe, Will Smith slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars, etc
@EzraSchott something at least as "crazy" as Will Smith slapping Chris Rock will definitely happen
@Duncn The last time something totally cuckoo and absolutely bananas was captured on this very sophisticated YouTube expose: https://youtu.be/cnuxtC-trt4?t=109