Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if another Trump cabinet member is fired or removed from their cabinet position before April 1, 2026. As of March 5, 2026, Kristi Noem was moved to a newly-created position of "Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas" and Markwayne Mullin was nominated as her replacement, which counts as one cabinet member departure. The market resolves YES if at least one additional cabinet member (beyond Noem) is fired, forced to resign, or otherwise removed from their cabinet position before the deadline. Resignations, forced departures, and terminations all count. Voluntary departures for other opportunities (like Noem's move to a new position) do not count unless they are forced. Resolution will be determined by official White House announcements and major news sources.

Background

While President Trump's Cabinet was remarkably stable in the first year of his second term, rumors of an impending shake-up abound. All presidents going back to Reagan (except for President Trump's first term) experienced an uptick in senior-level staff turnover during year two. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is facing mounting pressure after the Department of Labor's Office of Inspector General announced in January that it was reviewing complaints and potential misconduct allegations involving her office.

Considerations

The definition of "cabinet member" matters for resolution. This market tracks the 15 Senate-confirmed department heads in the presidential line of succession, plus any other Cabinet-rank positions Trump designates (such as EPA Administrator, OMB Director, etc.). Lateral moves to other Cabinet positions do not count as firings. Only actual removals from cabinet service count.

This description was generated by AI.