Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater before 2030?
➕
Plus
31
Ṁ4632
resolved Dec 12
Resolved
YES

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

  • The market will wait a few days after any qualifying earthquake for potential USGS magnitude revisions before resolving

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 NO

@themightysalmon so close (it might get revised up though):

sold Ṁ62 NO

nvm, might be legit since this might be the correct one to use:

@themightysalmon Looking at this policy, I think I should wait a few days before resolving (given how close to the line it is)
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/whywhen-does-usgs-update-magnitude-earthquake

@archvenison I have no stake in this market, but if I were in charge, this earthquake wouldn't count because it was in the Pacific Ocean, and I think the highest magnitude experienced by any point in California was less than 7. I could be wrong though.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules