Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater before 2030?

1kṀ4632

resolved Dec 12

Resolved

YES

ALL

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

The market will wait a few days after any qualifying earthquake for potential USGS magnitude revisions before resolving

Natural Disasters

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ370
2		Ṁ136
3		Ṁ60
4		Ṁ34
5		Ṁ33

People are also trading

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?

11% chance

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?

7% chance

Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?

56% chance

Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?

20% chance

Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?

34% chance

Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?

51% chance

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

10% chance

Will California, or any part of California, become an independent country before 2030?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ250 YES

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75095651/executive

bought Ṁ50 NO

@themightysalmon so close (it might get revised up though):

sold Ṁ62 NO

nvm, might be legit since this might be the correct one to use:

@themightysalmon Looking at this policy, I think I should wait a few days before resolving (given how close to the line it is)
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/whywhen-does-usgs-update-magnitude-earthquake

@archvenison I have no stake in this market, but if I were in charge, this earthquake wouldn't count because it was in the Pacific Ocean, and I think the highest magnitude experienced by any point in California was less than 7. I could be wrong though.