Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?

Question

This market will resolve Yes if Florida uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

Governor Ron DeSantis has announced a new map, and there is a special session of the (Republican controlled) legislature to try to pass it. From a legal perspective redistricting in Florida is complicated by the fact that the Florida constitution prohibits partisan gerrymandering (in contrast to other states where the easiest way to avoid legal challenges to to be explicit that you are gerrymandering based on partisanship).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 95% chance (19 traders, as of Jul 15, 2026).