Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the House of Representatives impeaches President Donald Trump before March 1, 2026. Resolution will be verified via Congress.gov. The market resolves NO if no impeachment occurs by the deadline.

Background

Trump is the only president to have been impeached twice in the House. House resolutions for impeachment have already been introduced, with the most recent H. Res. 939 going on the floor on December 10, 2025, with a vote of 237-140. The House has already rejected two impeachment pushes from Rep. Al Green, a Democrat from Texas, including one in June over U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities without approval from Congress. Trump has warned Republicans that if they don't keep control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats will impeach him again.

Considerations

With their focus on the midterms, fewer elected Democrats are willing to commit to impeaching Trump if they win back control of the House, given likely Republican control of the Senate. Republicans currently control the House, making impeachment passage unlikely before March without a dramatic shift in party dynamics.

This description was generated by AI.