Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between June 25, 2026, and June 25, 2036 (UTC), a sovereign state or military coalition establishes a military blockade of the Strait of Malacca.

• For the purposes of this market, a "blockade" is defined as a deliberate, military-enforced restriction or closure that halts or systematically restricts commercial maritime transit through the Strait of Malacca, lasting for a continuous period of at least 48 hours.

• The blockade must be officially recognized, declared, or described as a "blockade" or "military closure" of the Strait by at least two of the following reputable international news or maritime monitoring organizations:

  • Reuters (https://www.reuters.com)

  • Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com)

  • Associated Press (https://apnews.com)

  • The International Maritime Organization (IMO) (https://www.imo.org)

• Exclusions:

  • Accidental blockages (e.g., ship groundings, maritime collisions, or natural disasters) do not qualify.

  • Standard commercial tolls, regulatory tariffs, or customs inspections imposed by littoral states do not qualify.

  • Isolated acts of piracy or terrorism by non-state actors do not qualify, unless they are acting as proxy forces for a sovereign nation which officially claims or directs the blockade.

• If no such military blockade occurs and is maintained for at least 48 hours before June 25, 2036, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

The Strait of Malacca is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, carrying roughly 25% to 40% of global trade and approximately 30% of global oil shipments. China's reliance on this narrow passage for its energy imports has historically been dubbed the "Malacca dilemma," reflecting vulnerabilities to potential disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts involving major naval powers. While geopolitical tensions involving the US, China, India, and regional littoral states (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore) have spurred discussions about potential naval blockades, many strategic analysts note that executing a "far blockade" is highly complex and geopolitically distinct from closer flashpoints like the Strait of Hormuz. This market tracks whether geopolitical escalation will culminate in an actual military blockade of the strait over the next decade.

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