Will the existing China government collapse by 2025?
32
116
710
2025
5%
chance

Peter Zeihan is convinced that the China will have increasing political turmoil: "This is a country that will not last a whole lot longer" (Jan 10 2023, https://youtu.be/fHs8wqj3WQY).

This market resolves YES if there is general geopolitical consensus in the West that the existing single-party Chinese state has collapsed by start of 2025.

Since geopolitics is messy, examples of outcomes that would convince me to resolve YES:

  1. A new government separate from the Chinese Communist Party is running the country

  2. A coup that replaces the existing faction government (more than a new President replacing Xi from within the Chinese Communist Party)

  3. A widespread civil war that results in separately governed geographic areas

  4. China's quarterly international trade reduced by over 50%

  5. China's quarterly GDP reduced by over 50%

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So this would need to be like a USSR>>Russia type of event?

predicts NO

@AlQuinn That would qualify for this market, though Zeihan seems to think it’d be more disruptive.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Added some liquidity, will add more if this market attracts other traders.

If anyone has any questions about resolution criteria, please ask.

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