Will the existing China government collapse by 2025?
41
1kṀ8829
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Peter Zeihan is convinced that the China will have increasing political turmoil: "This is a country that will not last a whole lot longer" (Jan 10 2023, https://youtu.be/fHs8wqj3WQY).

This market resolves YES if there is general geopolitical consensus in the West that the existing single-party Chinese state has collapsed by start of 2025.

Since geopolitics is messy, examples of outcomes that would convince me to resolve YES:

  1. A new government separate from the Chinese Communist Party is running the country

  2. A coup that replaces the existing faction government (more than a new President replacing Xi from within the Chinese Communist Party)

  3. A widespread civil war that results in separately governed geographic areas

  4. China's quarterly international trade reduced by over 50%

  5. China's quarterly GDP reduced by over 50%

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