Predictions #1-4 from @ZviMowshowitz's post On AutoGPT:

1. In the short term, AutoGPT and its ilk will remain severely limited. The term ‘overhyped’ will be appropriate. Improvements will not lead to either a string of major incidents or major accomplishments.

2. There will still be viable use cases, even relatively soon. They will consist of relatively bounded tasks with clear subtasks that are things that such systems are already known to be good at. What AutoGPT-style things will enable will not be creative solutions, it will be more like when you would have otherwise needed to manage going through a list of tasks or options manually, and now you can automate that process, which is still pretty valuable.

3. Thus, the best and most successful AutoGPT-style agents people use to do tasks will, at least for a while, be less universal, less auto, and more bounded in both goals and methods. They will largely choose from a known ‘pool of tricks’ that are known to be things they can handle, if not exclusively then primarily. There will be a lot of tinkering, restricting, manual error-checking, explicit reflection steps and so on. Many will know when to interrupt the auto and ask for human help.

4. There will be a phase where there is a big impact from Microsoft Copilot 365 (and Google Bard’s version of it, if that version is any good) during which it overshadows agent LLMs and other LLM wrapping attempts. Microsoft and Google will give us ‘known to be safe’ tools and most people will, mostly wisely, stick with that for a good while.

I will run a poll at the end of 2023 asking people to rate how true this was from 0-100%, and this market will resolve to the average of the responses, excluding outliers.

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