Who will be the next president of Czech Republic after Miloš Zeman?

Ṁ2.9K

resolved Jan 28

ALL

1.8%

ANTE (bet on this to subsidize the market)

97%

Petr Pavel

0.0%

Miroslava Němcová

0.0%

Věra Jourová

0.0%

Josef Středula

0.0%

Vladimír Dlouhý

1.0%

Andrej Babiš

0.0%

Pavel Fischer

0.1%

Danuše Nerudová

0.0%

Karel Janeček

0.0%

Josef Skála

0.0%

Denisa Rohanová

0.0%

Marek Hilšer

0.0%

Hynek Blaško

0.0%

Tomáš Zima

0.0%

Martin Stropnický

0.0%

Arb - should copy: https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-danuse-nerudova-win-the-2023-c https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-petr-pavel-win-the-2023-czech https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-andrej-babis-win-the-2023-czec

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Czech_presidential_election Market will be resolved when the winner of the election is clear. I'm not sure whether Wikipedia's description ("Presidential elections will be held in the Czech Republic no later than January 2023") implies that the president-elect will be known in January alredy. Either way, market closes end of January, resolves when winner is known. Might also be closed earlier if elections happen earlier for some reason.

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Opened a new market for the 2028 Czech presidential election https://manifold.markets/duck/will-petr-pavel-win-the-2028-czech?r=ZHVjaw

Can resolve to Petr Pavel https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64438955

Czech bookmaker Tipsport provides as of Jan 15th Pavel with 1.12 betting odds vs. 6.40 for Babiš. This would correspond to 85% probability of Pavel win. https://m.tipsport.cz/kurzy/spolecenske-sazky/politika/3prima-volba-prezidenta-cr-75501