resolved Jan 28

13

Who will be the next president of Czech Republic after Miloš Zeman?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Czech_presidential_election Market will be resolved when the winner of the election is clear. I'm not sure whether Wikipedia's description ("Presidential elections will be held in the Czech Republic no later than January 2023") implies that the president-elect will be known in January alredy. Either way, market closes end of January, resolves when winner is known. Might also be closed earlier if elections happen earlier for some reason.

Štefan's group

Petr Pavel

Chosen

97%

ANTE (bet on this to subsidize the market)

1.8%

Andrej Babiš

1.0%

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Štefan Kecskes	Ṁ132
2	crystal ball	Ṁ61
3	nebelkugel	Ṁ56
4	Tomek K 🟡	Ṁ53
5	Josef Szotkowski	Ṁ33

Sort by:

Opened a new market for the 2028 Czech presidential election https://manifold.markets/duck/will-petr-pavel-win-the-2028-czech?r=ZHVjaw

Can resolve to Petr Pavel https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64438955

Czech bookmaker Tipsport provides as of Jan 15th Pavel with 1.12 betting odds vs. 6.40 for Babiš. This would correspond to 85% probability of Pavel win. https://m.tipsport.cz/kurzy/spolecenske-sazky/politika/3prima-volba-prezidenta-cr-75501

Second round will be held between Pavel and Babiš https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/former-nato-general-ex-prime-minister-seen-leading-czech-presidential-election-2023-01-13/

Martin Modrákbought Ṁ30 of Danuše Nerudová

Arb - should copy: https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-danuse-nerudova-win-the-2023-c https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-petr-pavel-win-the-2023-czech https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-andrej-babis-win-the-2023-czec

Štefan Kecskes sold Ṁ5 Andrej Babiš from 1.5% to 1.0%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ2 Andrej Babiš from 1.7% to 1.5%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ18 Andrej Babiš from 3% to 1.7%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ15 Andrej Babiš from 4% to 3%

YEEtrading bought Ṁ200 Petr Pavel from 92% to 94%

nebelkugel bought Ṁ500 Petr Pavel from 88% to 92%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ25 Petr Pavel from 87% to 88%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ14 Andrej Babiš from 10% to 8%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ21 Andrej Babiš from 12% to 10%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ18 Andrej Babiš from 14% to 12%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ100 Petr Pavel from 80% to 82%

crystal ball bought Ṁ10 Petr Pavel at 80%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ20 Petr Pavel at 80%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ20 Andrej Babiš from 14% to 16%

Daniel Hnyk bought Ṁ100 Petr Pavel from 79% to 82%

Michael Soukup sold Ṁ3 Martin Stropnický from 0.4% to 0.0%

nebelkugel bought Ṁ100 Petr Pavel from 76% to 79%

Štefan Kecskes sold Ṁ3 Danuše Nerudová from 0.7% to 0.3%

Štefan Kecskes sold Ṁ6 Danuše Nerudová from 1.5% to 0.7%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ9 Danuše Nerudová from 3% to 1.5%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ19 Danuše Nerudová from 5% to 3%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ19 Danuše Nerudová from 8% to 5%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ20 Danuše Nerudová from 10% to 8%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ40 Petr Pavel from 67% to 69%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ25 Andrej Babiš from 14% to 17%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ9 Petr Pavel at 69%

crystal ball bought Ṁ20 Petr Pavel from 68% to 69%

crystal ball sold Ṁ6 Danuše Nerudová from 12% to 11%

crystal ball bought Ṁ30 Petr Pavel from 66% to 67%

crystal ball bought Ṁ85 Petr Pavel from 62% to 66%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ6 Danuše Nerudová from 15% to 14%

YEEtrading bought Ṁ20 Petr Pavel from 60% to 61%

crystal ball bought Ṁ15 Petr Pavel from 59% to 60%

crystal ball bought Ṁ15 Petr Pavel from 58% to 59%

nebelkugel bought Ṁ20 Petr Pavel from 57% to 58%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ5 Petr Pavel from 56% to 57%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ20 Petr Pavel from 55% to 56%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ20 Andrej Babiš from 17% to 19%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ30 Andrej Babiš from 13% to 17%

crystal ball bought Ṁ10 ANTE (bet on this to... from 6% to 7%

crystal ball sold Ṁ26 Danuše Nerudová from 22% to 19%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ100 Petr Pavel from 50% to 58%

Martin Modrák sold Ṁ21 Andrej Babiš from 18% to 15%

Tomek K 🟡 bought Ṁ100 Petr Pavel from 39% to 49%

crystal ball bought Ṁ10 Petr Pavel from 38% to 39%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ10 Danuše Nerudová from 30% to 31%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ10 Petr Pavel from 37% to 38%

Štefan Kecskes sold Ṁ1 Josef Středula from 0.3% to 0.0%

Štefan Kecskes sold Ṁ2 Josef Středula from 0.7% to 0.3%

Štefan Kecskes bought Ṁ15 Petr Pavel from 35% to 37%

Related markets

Who will be the next President of Belarus, after Lukashenko?

2023 Matt Yglesias' Predictions: Danuše Nerudová elected President of Czechia?3%

Who will be the next president of France after Macron?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands after Mark Rutte?

Related markets

Who will be the next President of Belarus, after Lukashenko?

2023 Matt Yglesias' Predictions: Danuše Nerudová elected President of Czechia?3%

Who will be the next president of France after Macron?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands after Mark Rutte?