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8 Comments

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54 Trades

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predicted YES

Created a new market for the 2028 Czech presidential election

https://manifold.markets/duck/will-petr-pavel-win-the-2028-czech?r=ZHVjaw

Can resolve to yes https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64438955

sold Ṁ22 of YES

predicted YES

We are at 7.30 for Babiš and 1.08 for Pavel. Doesn't that correspond to 93% for Pavel?

predicted YES

@DanielHnyk Not sure how much I should update on this, but it seems that his debate yesterday was almost universally (incl. Babiš's media) considered a fiasco for Babiš (it was indeed trully bizarre) and his tour in bigger cities also isn't going "that well" (e.g. in Brno today).

Odds are already on 1.06 vs. 8.30, implying 87-94% for Pavel.

predicted YES

Czech bookmaker Tipsport provides as of Jan 15th Pavel with 1.12 betting odds vs. 6.40 for Babiš. This would correspond to ~85% probability of Pavel win. https://m.tipsport.cz/kurzy/spolecenske-sazky/politika/3prima-volba-prezidenta-cr-75501

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Arb: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/who-will-be-the-next-president-of-c

Will Petr Pavel win the 2023 Czech presidential election?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition