Will a public gay pride legally take place in the UAE by 2040? | Manifold

Will a public gay pride legally take place in the UAE by 2040?

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2040

45%

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As of 2024, homosexuality is de jure illegal in the UAE.

By January 1st, 2040, will at least one public gay pride event legally take place somewhere in the UAE?

An event declared illegal by the government will not count. If the government is aware of the event and let it happen, the question will resolve as yes, even if at the time homosexuality might be de jure illegal in the jurisdiction. Events happening in diplomatic representations will not count. The event has to be open to the public, so, for instance, a private celebration by residents at their home will not count.

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#️‍ LGBTQIA+

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Someone should make a market for Gaza and the West Bank. I recently said that once the Palestinians have gay pride parades, then that's how we will know that they are ready for peace with Israel.

“An event declared illegal by the government will not count.” okay what? how is this not a guaranteed 0%? Aren’t folks familiar with thwse people?

literally just too long-term a market for people to invest in

"these people": are you racist?

Homosexuality might be legal by the so it's not guaranteed 0%: https://manifold.markets/adssx/will-homosexuality-be-legal-in-duba

Will homosexuality be legal in Dubai in 2035 (partially or fully)?

49% chance. "Homosexuality is illegal in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and under the federal criminal provisions, consensual same-sex sexual activity is punishable by imprisonment; extra-marital sexual activity between persons of different sexes is also illegal." On January 1st, 2035, will homosexuality (between men or women) be legal de jure in all or part of the Emirate of Dubai? The question resolves yes even if homosexuality is only legal in Dubai but illegal in the rest of the UAE. The question similarly resolves yes if homosexuality is legal in some parts of the Emirate of Dubai only, for instance in some sectors, communities or free zones. The question also resolves YES if homosexuality is legal only for a subgroup of the resident population such as non Muslims or foreigners. The question resolves no if homosexuality is de facto legal with no enforcement despite an official ban. The legalization can be by legislation, executive order, case law, etc.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/adssx/will-homosexuality-be-legal-in-duba

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Will the UAE legalize homosexuality by 2035?

Will another African nation, after Uganda in 2023, make LGTB identification illegal before 2025?

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Will Singapore recognise gay marriage by 2030?

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