Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Germany attends a summit or formal negotiation meeting with Russia regarding Ukraine peace that explicitly excludes the United States before January 1, 2027. The meeting must be officially announced or documented by German government sources, Russian government sources, or major international news outlets. Bilateral meetings between Germany and Russia do not count; the summit must involve Ukraine as a party or subject of discussion. The US exclusion must be explicit—meetings where the US simply does not participate do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by official government statements, press releases, or credible reporting from major news organizations.

Background

The Coalition of the Willing is a coalition of 34 countries (plus Ukraine) that have pledged strengthened support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, led by the United Kingdom and France, announced on March 2, 2025. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has participated in recent coalition summits in Paris. As of December 2025, Germany joined France and the UK as a co-chair of the summit meetings.

American, Ukrainian and Russian representatives have gathered in the United Arab Emirates for trilateral talks, with the second round held in Abu Dhabi last month. The U.S. has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach a peace agreement, according to President Zelenskyy. Current peace negotiations remain US-mediated and include American participation.

Considerations

Germany's role in Ukraine peace discussions has evolved significantly. Ukraine and its European allies—led by Britain, France, and Germany—developed a counterproposal to a US-proposed peace plan, putting forward a 20-point plan that took in more of Kyiv's interests. However, all major peace summits to date have included US participation. The question hinges on whether Germany would break from the US-led diplomatic framework to conduct separate negotiations with Russia, which would represent a substantial shift in current diplomatic arrangements.

This description was generated by AI.