Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a large-scale internet blackout occurs in any G20 country between June 6, 2025, and December 31, 2025. A "large-scale internet blackout" is defined as a complete or near-complete loss of internet connectivity affecting a significant portion of a country's population for at least 24 consecutive hours. Verification will be based on credible reports from reputable news organizations or official statements from governmental bodies.

Background

Internet blackouts have been employed by various governments to control information flow during protests, conflicts, or political unrest. In 2024, there were 296 internet shutdowns across 54 countries, with G20 member India recording 84 instances, the highest among democracies. (business-standard.com) These shutdowns can have significant economic impacts; for example, Pakistan experienced losses of $1.62 billion due to nearly 10,000 hours of internet disruptions in 2024. (theprint.in)

Considerations

While the first quarter of 2025 saw zero government-directed internet shutdowns globally, this trend may not continue, especially during periods of political tension or major events. (datacenterdynamics.com) Traders should monitor upcoming elections, protests, or conflicts in G20 countries, as these events have historically been associated with internet blackouts.