Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, a protest explicitly opposing artificial intelligence (AI) occurs in a Western country and meets the following criteria:

• Size: The protest must involve at least 10,000 participants.

• Location: The protest must take place in a Western country, defined as any member of the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia, or New Zealand.

• Focus: The primary purpose of the protest must be opposition to AI technologies or policies.

Verification will be based on credible news reports or official records confirming the occurrence and scale of such a protest.

Background

Public sentiment toward AI in Western countries has been increasingly cautious. Surveys indicate that a significant portion of the population is more concerned than excited about AI's integration into daily life. For instance, a 2023 Pew Research Center survey found that 52% of Americans are more concerned than excited about AI's role in society. (pewresearch.org) Similarly, in the UK, 87% of respondents support laws requiring AI systems to be proven safe before release, reflecting a strong demand for regulation. (time.com)

Despite these concerns, large-scale protests specifically targeting AI have been rare. However, movements like PauseAI, founded in the Netherlands in 2023, have emerged, advocating for halting the development of advanced AI systems until safety measures are established. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• Public Awareness: The general public's understanding of AI varies, which may influence the likelihood of organized protests.

• Regulatory Developments: Ongoing legislative actions concerning AI could either mitigate or exacerbate public concerns, potentially affecting protest activities.

• Historical Precedents: While there have been protests related to technology and privacy, large-scale demonstrations specifically against AI remain uncommon.