Resolution criteria

• President or Defence Minister say a new mobilization wave has started — Resolves YES if an official statement is posted on the presidential website or the Defence Ministry’s site, or carried as a direct on‑record quote by Russia’s state news agency. Primary sources: en.kremlin.ru, eng.mil.ru; corroboration acceptable via TASS. (publicnow.com)

• An official order on a new mobilization wave is published — Resolves YES if a presidential decree or government act initiating mobilization is posted on Russia’s Official Internet Portal of Legal Information (pravo.gov.ru) during 2025. Example portal entries for reference: presidential and government acts. (publication.pravo.gov.ru)

• Some people are mobilized before any official claims, reported by media — Resolves YES if at least two reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, Meduza/Novaya Gazeta Europe/Mediazona) publish reports with primary evidence (documents, official notices, or on‑record confirmation) of call‑ups under “mobilization” occurring before any national‑level announcement. (dw.com)

• Exit or travel restrictions for mobilization‑eligible citizens are enacted — Resolves YES if a new 2025 federal legal act adding or re‑imposing outbound travel limits tied to mobilization is officially published (pravo.gov.ru or government.ru). Media coverage (RBC/BBC) may be used for quick verification but the legal text controls. (publication.pravo.gov.ru)

• An official target number for new call‑ups is publicly announced — Resolves YES if the President, Defence Minister, or MoD officially state a nationwide numeric target for a new mobilization tranche (kremlin.ru or mil.ru; TASS acceptable as transcript). (publicnow.com)

• No new mobilization wave occurs by Dec 31, 2025 — Resolves YES if by 23:59 Moscow time on December 31, 2025, no new national‑level mobilization announcement or legal act is posted on kremlin.ru/mil.ru/pravo.gov.ru. Media reports alone do not negate this answer. (publicnow.com)

• Regional authorities announce local mobilization measures before national statements — Resolves YES if an official regional government channel (website/verified press service) issues a mobilization order or directive and timestamps show it precedes any national‑level announcement; verify via the regional post plus at least one reputable outlet. National sites used for time comparison: kremlin.ru, mil.ru. (publicnow.com)

Notes:

• Timeframe: now through 23:59 Moscow time, December 31, 2025. I will try to resolve options immediately as evidence appears.

• Routine spring/autumn conscription does not count; events must pertain to mobilization of reservists or equivalent emergency call‑ups.

• Where conflict exists, the legally published text on pravo.gov.ru governs. (publication.pravo.gov.ru)

Background

• Russia’s 2022 “partial mobilization” was enacted by presidential decree and officially published; debate has persisted over whether it was ever formally terminated, making clear, dated sources crucial for any “new wave.” (en.wikipedia.org)

• Official publications and announcements are typically posted on: the President’s site (en.kremlin.ru), the Defence Ministry (eng.mil.ru), and the Official Internet Portal of Legal Information (pravo.gov.ru); Rossiyskaya Gazeta also serves as an official print record. (publicnow.com)

• Travel/exit limits tied to draft status were expanded via 2023 legislation introducing electronic summons and automatic restrictions upon service of a notice; “new” 2025 restrictions would require fresh acts. (rbc.ru)

Considerations

• “New wave” here means a distinct, newly announced/ordered mobilization beyond routine conscription; this can be nationwide or explicitly framed as mobilization in legal/official texts. (publication.pravo.gov.ru)

• Independent media in or about Russia often operate in exile; require primary evidence or multiple outlets to verify pre‑announcement mobilization claims. (apnews.com)

• For sequencing (regional before national), use official post timestamps and archived copies if needed; national baselines for comparison are kremlin.ru and mil.ru. (publicnow.com)