If Joe Biden is elected President, will he die during his second term?
If Joe Biden is elected President, will he die during his second term?
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1kṀ5904resolved Jul 25
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Resolves YES if Joe Biden is elected President, then dies during his second term. Also counts if he is elected, but dies before his term officially begins.
Resolves N/A if Joe Biden is not elected President again.
Resolves NO if Joe Biden is elected President, then survives the entirety of his second term.
Will resolve as reported by the BBC.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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