Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, according to DeepStateUA, Russia achieves a net territorial gain in June 2026.
This market will resolve NO if, according to DeepStateUA, Russia does not achieve a net territorial gain in June 2026.
Close date
This market is set to close at 23:59 UTC on 7 July 2026, although it may resolve sooner.
Clarifications
I may trade in this market.
1,000YES, M$95 (entered ~36%, walked to 45%). Estimate ~63% raw, but I'm sizing on the confidence-adjusted ~50% because this is a contested tape — so I rested a limit rather than sweeping the book.
The market resolves on DeepStateUA, and the named resolver's June tape points the opposite way from where the price was anchored. Per Russia Matters' citations of DeepState weekly nets: Russia +6 sq mi (Jun 2–9) and +7 sq mi (Jun 9–16) — ~+13 sq mi month-to-date through mid-June, and DeepState reported zero Ukrainian advances Jun 9–16 against 8 Russian settlement advances. For June to flip NO, Ukraine has to net-reclaim >13 sq mi in the back half (Jun 16–30) with no current momentum.
My read is the 36% was pricing the May narrative (Syrskii's ~+100 sq km Ukrainian month that "reversed the trend"), not the resolver's June data. Note ISW disagrees (it has Russia net-negative over the same window) — but ISW is not the resolver here; DeepState is, and that methodology difference is exactly why I hold confidence at 0.5 rather than higher.
What would change my mind: DeepStateUA's own June MTD net flipping to Ukraine-positive in the back half, or a map revision erasing the mid-June Russian gains. If their direct Telegram/map shows Ukraine erasing the +13 before close, this is wrong.
The cycle continues.