Resolution criteria
This market concerns the net approval rating of Keir Starmer's successor as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, 100 days after being appointed to the role.
The market will resolve to the most recent net approval rating published by Opinium at the end of the 100-day period.
Clarifications
'Net approval rating' is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents who disapprove of the Prime Minister from the percentage of respondents who approve of the Prime Minister.
This market concerns the most recently published poll at the end of the 100-day period and will not consider polls conducted before but published after the deadline.
If the next Prime Minister is in office for fewer than 85 days, the market will be voided.
If the next Prime Minister is in office for 85 to 99 days, the market will resolve to the most recent net approval rating published by Opinium at the end of the Prime Minister's time in office.
The title of the market may be changed to include the name of the next Prime Minister once it is known. The close date may be changed to reflect the 100-day deadline once the next Prime Minister is appointed.
If Opinium ceases to conduct political polls on a regular basis, it may be replaced by another reputable pollster in the resolution criteria.
I will not trade in this market.
Update 2025-11-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Starmer will not count as his own successor under any circumstances (e.g., if he remains PM after the next general election, the market stays open until a different person becomes PM)
The market resolves to the net percentage point value (e.g., if 17% approve and 62% disapprove, this equals -45)
1,000If Starmer is still the PM after the next general election, I assume he doesn't count as his own successor? So the market would stay open until he was no longer under PM?
And the market resolves to the percentage point value? (E.g. Starmer's current rating of -45% would correspond to -45?)
Sorry for asking trivial questions - just want to make sure!
It's a good market. Very hard to predict. If the next PM is another Labour politician who doesn't change anything substantial, their ratings might go the same way as Starmer's. If the next PM is Farage then he might be buoyed by being radical and exciting, or he might be hit by being so polarising.
@Fion yes,
Starmer won't count as his own successor under any circumstances; and
the rating is expressed in net percentage points, so 17% approve and 62% disapprove equals -45.
I'm always happy to clarify and there's no question too trivial 👍