Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, conditional on Zohran Mamdani being elected New York City mayor in November 2025 and taking office on January 1, 2026, the latest publicly released poll with fieldwork ending between August 1–31, 2028 measuring “job approval” of Mayor Zohran Mamdani among NYC adults, registered voters, or likely voters shows Approve > Disapprove (net approval > 0). Ties (Approve = Disapprove) resolve NO. Favorability-only polls do not count. Examples of qualifying pollsters include Quinnipiac University Poll and Marist Poll; results will be verified from their official releases. (poll.qu.edu, maristpoll.marist.edu)

• If multiple eligible polls exist in August 2028, use the one with the latest fieldwork end date; if those are identical, use the larger sample size. If no eligible August 2028 poll exists, use the closest poll with fieldwork ending July 1–September 30, 2028; if none, use the most recent poll in 2028 before August 31. If no job-approval poll of Mamdani exists in 2028 at all, resolve N/A.

• If Mamdani is not elected NYC mayor in 2025 or does not assume office, resolve N/A. (en.wikipedia.org)

Background

• Zohran Mamdani is a New York State Assembly member (District 36) and, as of June 2025, the Democratic nominee for NYC mayor; the general election is scheduled for November 4, 2025, with the mayoral term beginning January 1, 2026. (en.wikipedia.org)

• NYC mayoral job approval is regularly polled and publicly released by reputable pollsters such as Quinnipiac and Marist, which report approve vs. disapprove percentages used to compute net approval. (poll.qu.edu, maristpoll.marist.edu)

• Recent (August 2025) polling showed Mamdani competitive citywide, including positive favorability metrics; note that favorability is distinct from job approval and is not used for resolution. (spectrumlocalnews.com)

Considerations

• Eligible populations may vary by poll (adults, registered, or likely voters); this market accepts any of these, using the topline approve/disapprove. (poll.qu.edu, maristpoll.marist.edu)

• Only “job approval” of the sitting mayor counts; favorability, issue handling, or image ratings are excluded. (poll.qu.edu)

• If Mamdani leaves office before August 2028, the fallback rule above applies (use the most recent qualifying 2028 job-approval poll while he was in office; if none, N/A). (poll.qu.edu)