Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a different person holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point during 2026. It resolves NO if Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister throughout the entire year 2026.

Resolution will be determined by official UK government records at gov.uk.

Background

Keir Starmer became Prime Minister on 5 July 2024 following Labour's landslide victory over the Conservatives, securing 411 seats and a 174-seat majority. The next general election must be called by August 2029, though the prime minister can choose to hold it at any point before this.

Considerations

A new prime minister could enter office in 2026 through two mechanisms: (1) a general election called early by Starmer, or (2) a change of Labour leadership while the party retains its parliamentary majority. Starmer's net approval rating fell to an average of –46% by November 2025, making him the least popular prime minister since records began in 1977. Labour Party rules require a contender to have the support of 20 percent of MPs to be nominated for a leadership election, which would be a significant hurdle given Labour's current majority.