Welcome to Multibet Mansion… in this market, each option is composed of multiple legs. An option will resolve YES if all legs succeed or NO if at least one leg fails.

Resolutions in this market will be informed solely by existing markets run by other users. I will not overrule them under any circumstances.

Active options

In 2025: [Pope Leo XIV named Time’s Person of the Year] and [Pope Leo XIV openly criticises Trump]

This option will resolve YES if /Joshua/2025-times-person-of-the-year-conso resolves “Pope Leo XIV” YES and /redcat/will-pope-leo-xiv-openly-criticize resolves YES. It will resolve NO if either market resolves NO.

In 2025: [Trump is on Time’s Person of the Year shortlist] and [Trump cuts >250,000 government employees]

This option will resolve YES if /jks/who-will-be-on-the-2025-time-person resolves “Donald Trump” YES and /Ziddletwix/will-trump-elon-cut-250000-governme resolves YES. It will resolve NO if either market resolves NO.

By end of 2026: [Iran closes Strait of Hormuz] and [Iran acquires nuclear weapon]

This option will resolve YES if /MarcusAbramovitch/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormu-75ffa2ccfaad resolves YES and /EvanDaniel/will-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-weapon-0LzRhnhyPd resolves YES. It will resolve NO if either market resolves NO.

[Wikipedia declares Israeli victory in Gaza war] and [Wikipedia declares Ukrainian victory against Russia]

This option will resolve YES if /chrisjbillington/will-israel-win-the-2023-israelhama resolves YES and /chrisjbillington/will-ukraine-win-the-russoukrainian resolves YES. It will resolve NO if either market resolves NO. This option has no time limit.

Clarifications

Resolutions by other users must stand for 24 hours before I follow them.

As resolutions in this market are not based on my own judgement, I will trade in this market.