This is prediction #5 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves YES if a country exists at the end of 2023 that controls at least some territory within each of these countries' 2022 borders:
Germany
Czechia
Slovakia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ88 | |
| 2 | Ṁ66 | |
| 3 | Ṁ62 | |
| 4 | Ṁ52 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
Nitpicking… but shouldn’t it be a new country? As stated of course « a country exists at the end of 2023 that controls at least some territory within each of these countries' 2022 borders:
Germany …. ». The country is Germany itself, it controls Germany, which is within the borders of Germany.
Edit, upon rereading « within each » means it should straddle them all, so I guess there is no ambiguity
@mariopasquato But Germany does not control territory within the other countries' borders, so it does not control territory within each of the countries' borders.
@chrisjbillington I think Manifold was promoting it for some reason, and that's how I ended up betting in it. Actually, it helps that it's very easy to figure out how to bet (NO there is no way in hell that's going to happen in the next year.
My best guess is lots of people click on it because it's so absurd and easy to predict; then Manifold (the computers not the people) notice it's getting lots of clicks, so they promote it so it gets even more clicks...