Will a country controlling 2022 territory of Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and the Baltics exist by the end of 2023?
3%
chance

This is prediction #5 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.

Resolves YES if a country exists at the end of 2023 that controls at least some territory within each of these countries' 2022 borders:

  • Germany

  • Czechia

  • Slovakia

  • Estonia

  • Latvia

  • Lithuania

  • Poland

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chrisjbillington avatar

Any particular reason this market is so liquid?

Boklam avatar
Boklam
is predicting NO at 1%

@chrisjbillington I think Manifold was promoting it for some reason, and that's how I ended up betting in it. Actually, it helps that it's very easy to figure out how to bet (NO there is no way in hell that's going to happen in the next year.

My best guess is lots of people click on it because it's so absurd and easy to predict; then Manifold (the computers not the people) notice it's getting lots of clicks, so they promote it so it gets even more clicks...