Will Bavaria be an independent nation by 2050?
8
46
Ṁ242Ṁ190
2050
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Ever since its incorporation into the German Empire in 1871, calls for a Bavarian independent state have been loud and numerous.
As one of Germany's most populous and richest states with a strong regional identity, Bavarian separatists argue that the German government infringes on its sovereign rights and worsens quality of life by taking resources away from Bavaria through financial redistribution, for example.
In some ways, it's reminiscent of other separatist movements such as those of Scotland or Catalonia.
However, according to a 2017 YouGov poll, only 32% of Bavarians would support independence, and the only party in favour of it (Bavaria Party) does not currently have enough votes to enter parliament.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
39% chance
Will there be a new US State by 2055?
41% chance
Which countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?
Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?
80% chance
Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?
44% chance
Will Germany have a one-party or two-party government before 2030?
62% chance
Will the Netherlands still be a monarchy in 2050?
59% chance
Will the European Union become a country by 2100?
35% chance
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2050?
66% chance
Will Poland overtake UK in GDP per capita by 2050?
35% chance