Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
Plus
42
Ṁ3099Jan 1
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will use my subjective judgement for resolving whether it is as good as GPT-4, but benchmark results will play a part in shaping that judgement. The rest will be qualitative measurement.
Whether something is "open source" is defined liberally here and also will be determined by my subjective judgement, but generally I will deem something open source if (a) anyone can access it and (b) it wasn't the result of an unintentional leak/exfiltration, regardless of the precisions of the license.
I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
18% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
81% chance
Will an open source model beat GPT-4 in 2024?
39% chance
Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033
35% chance
Will a Mamba-based LLM of GPT 3.5 quality or greater be open sourced in 2024?
79% chance
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
53% chance
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 4090 by March 2025
31% chance
Will a 15 billion parameter LLM match or outperform GPT4 in 2024?
24% chance
Will any open source LLM with <20 billion parameters outperform GPT-4 on most language benchmarks by the end of 2024?
15% chance