Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before end of 2025" market go below 20% before the end of 2024?
15
230Ṁ6788
resolved Jan 9
Resolved
YES

After the creation of this market, only.

The market in question:

The market must stay under 20% for over 75% of a time period of 12 hrs to prevent transient spikes from counting.

AI
OpenAI
AGI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ70
2Ṁ51
3Ṁ44
4Ṁ31
5Ṁ13

People are also trading

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
3% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
7% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
3% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
3% chance
When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Will we get AGI before 2026?
4% chance
Will OpenAI IPO before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025
99% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
75% chance
Will a major lab officially declare AGI before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Sort by:

Resolves YES.

Surely the resolution criterion needs to be like "stays under 20% for over X% of a time length Y" to prevent people buying a ton of shares in some direction and immediately selling?

@MadCloud101 Alright, adding that

predictedYES

@firstuserhere I also added the "for over X%" to prevent transient spikes during the time period in the YES direction

People are also trading

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
3% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
7% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
3% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
3% chance
When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Will we get AGI before 2026?
4% chance
Will OpenAI IPO before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025
99% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
75% chance
Will a major lab officially declare AGI before the end of 2025?
6% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy