Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters? | Manifold

Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 2% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 2%. Frontier models are multi-trillion-parameter (xAI states 1.5–2.5T, Kimi K3 2.8T, Qwen3.8 2.4T, and GPT-6/Mythos are rumoured at 8–10T). The creator counted MoE models by total parameters, and Manifold mods may leave the market unresolved or resolve it N/A. YES is very unlikely.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

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