When will the first quadrillion parameter LLM be made?
19
1kṀ9342030
4%
2023-2024
22%
2025-2026
25%
2027-2028
11%
2028-2029
38%
2030+ or never
Any LLM with at least 1 quadrillion parameters. Resolution will be delayed if there isn't public clarity about the number of parameters and it's close.
Update 2025-03-01 (PST): - Early resolution of an option is not possible (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <500 billion parameters?
12% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <250 billion parameters?
12% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?
13% chance
More than 80% of all user queries to LLMs will be served by LLMs less than 10 Billion parameters in size by 2050?
50% chance
Which LLM has more parameters?
Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?
69% chance
When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?
Will Transformer-Based LLMs Make Up ≥75% of Parameters in the Top General AI by 2030?
50% chance
Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?
27% chance
Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?
43% chance