Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?
18
1kṀ10142028
67%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Chinchilla presented The Scaling Laws
I'll not hold more than 10 shares in this market, though may make small token bets once in a while.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?
82% chance
Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?
10% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
37% chance
We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
10% chance
Sort by:
@mods will it be possible to resolve this question and this other question at the end of 2027? I would also be willing to have it transferred to me, if I'm judged trustworthy enough.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2026?
82% chance
Will AI (large language models) collapse by may 2026?
10% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
37% chance
We are going to start running out of data to train large language models in [YEAR]
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
10% chance