Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)
2.2k
2025
20%
chance

Merge = a major integrated effort, instead of a few disjointed collaborative projects. A significant amount of resources shared.

Doesnt have to form a single merged company or organization of a kind, but a systematic sharing of resources, research, and personnel exclusive to this partnership is a resolution criteria.

OpenAI has a "merge and assist" clause as well, which would also satisfy it.

Please ask questions about the resolution criteria to help me narrow it down to avoid confusions later.

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@Feanor Can we put a lower bound on "significant", maybe by specifying something along the lines "both need to invest x% of personnel/compute/ressources"?

@Primer Ah I'm hesitant to impose constraints already because there are so many ways this can unfold, and i do not want the imposed constraints to rule out initiatives that otherwise would've qualified under the spirit of the market. The team sizes change, and if I had announced a size last week when OpenAI had like <10 members on interpretability vs now when they are announcing superalignment, then I'd have to modify the constraint again. Anyway, it should not be a visiting researcher or a minor project, only major projects will count, and let's say that the websites of the orgs announce it as a joint initiative where both teams share internal resources and personnel, that'd count

@Feanor Sounds good to me. I'd suggest an update to the resolution criteria.

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bought Ṁ30 of YES

It seems a safety project collaboration is increasingly likely everyday for a few reasons.

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