Revenue Estimation: August 2023, Manifold Markets
27
1.9kṀ68k
resolved Aug 23
100%100.0%
>$15k
0.0%
<$1000
0.0%
$1000-$3000
0.0%
$3000-$5000
0.0%
$5000-$7000
0.0%
$7000-$9000
0.0%
$9000-$11,000
0.0%
$11,000-$13000
0.0%
$13,000-$15,000

Option format [A,B) i.e. A is included, B is excluded, and in between counts.

I will use data from stats page to resolve.

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Now that the LK99 fever rush has died down, this should be a bit harder and a bit more interesting to estimate

Very likely to resolve with the next batch of stats published

@firstuserhere Can't go by discord bot, remember?

@parhizj ah yes

hopefully this resolves today

@nobody ah not today I guess. Getting closer though. In hindsight, I think i made the right choice when making options for this market. Also, shouldn't have invested ~20k mana into this market lol

@firstuserhere tomorrow certainly ig. also why was investing ~20k wrong? wont you would be getting back much better return as profits or am i tripping?

@nobody not wrong per day but overinvested at these interest rates. But I'm only saying that cuz I ran out of mana yesterday betting down the 1350 users market and would've wanted to bet more there xD not a mistake here at all, still making a good profit here

@firstuserhere oh i see. that reminds me, the next time i hit 1k I'll surely pay you back

@nobody you don't need to pay back gifts, it was all good fun

phew, I was starting to get worried I bought too much of the >15k option

10,060 Aug 1-7

+390 = 10450 Aug 1-8

@firstuserhere +690 = 11140 (Aug 1-9)

@parhizj +65 = 11205 (Aug 1-10)

@parhizj +520 = 11725 (Aug 1-11)

@parhizj +50 = 11775 (Aug 1-12)

@parhizj +320 = 12095 (Aug 1-13)

@parhizj +1115 = 13210 (Aug 1-14)

@parhizj +85 = 13295 (Aug 1-15)

@parhizj +485 = 13780 (Aug 1-16)

@parhizj +140 = 13920 (Aug 1-17)

@parhizj +65 = 13985 (Aug 1-18)

@parhizj +495 = 14480 (Aug 1-19)

@parhizj +25 = 14505 (Aug 1-20)

@parhizj +95 = 14600 (Aug 1-21)

@firstuserhere 16285 Aug 1-22.

Should resolve 15k+ now (probably as of a few days ago). Don't know what happened but the numbers changed for the beginning of the month AND I think one of the numbers got deleted in my notebook when I was copying them by hand (oops).

I copy-pasted the dailySales values from chrome debugger to not make another data entry mistake:

>>> dailySales

[50, 110, 0, 100, 260, 25, 20, 25, 145, 35, 10, 20, 195, 245, 205, 100, 35, 70, 75, 0, 150, 60, 10, 35, 100, 20, 110, 135, 55, 585, 40, 35, 4985, 335, 1525, 420, 45, 45, 205, 35, 25, 110, 35, 330, 660, 100, 135, 95, 35, 185, 35, 200, 525, 535, 710, 45, 0, 280, 25, 26030, 4485, 0, 0, 35, 275, 25, 35, 525, 3785, 45, 50, 85, 95, 75, 0, 380, 220, 25, 10, 25, 10, 0, 25, 10, 35, 85, 45, 25, 85, 220, 35, 55, 10, 30, 90, 35, 375, 50, 85, 35, 85, 20, 10, 25, 380, 320, 125, 60, 520, 25, 50, 20, 275, 175, 110, 50, 65, 95, 135, 80, 350, 385, 90, 50, 35, 110, 130, 170, 155, 35, 20, 60, 70, 60, 25, 110, 70, 40, 10, 20, 35, 25, 10, 160, 10, 120, 220, 145, 0, 0, 135, 235, 305, 675, 330, 20, 320, 3050, 3075, 1130, 640, 1420, 1235, 410, 2610, 450, 690, 90, 520, 50, 320, 1125, 85, 485, 160, 105, 505, 25, 95, 1060]

>>> AugDailySales = dailySales[-22:]

>>> AugDailySales

[3075, 1130, 640, 1420, 1235, 410, 2610, 450, 690, 90, 520, 50, 320, 1125, 85, 485, 160, 105, 505, 25, 95, 1060]

>>> sum(AugDailySales)

16285



@parhizj Thanks for the daily comments with the latest amounts! Resolving it now

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