By March 14, 2025, will there be an AI model with over 10 trillion parameters?
57
1kṀ8951Mar 14
5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Finished training.
it should be competitive with SOTA of the time. Rough estimates ofc but not too far behind.
I will not trade in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
40% chance
OpenAI releases open-source model exceeding 8B parameters by EOY2026?
95% chance
Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?
8% chance
What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
15% chance
Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?
87% chance
Will GPT-5 have over 100 trillion parameters?
14% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
26% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters?
40% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters?
24% chance