
By 2030, will AI be able to produce a song that is indistinguishable from a new song by a particular artist?
16
Never closes
<10%
10-30%
30-50%
50-70%
70-90%
>90%
e.g. a song that experienced listeners can’t distinguish from a new song by Taylor Swift
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
By 2030, will AI be able to produce a song that is indistinguishable from a new song by a particular artist?
72% chance
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
32% chance
Will AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?
11% chance
By 2030, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?
87% chance
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
16% chance
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
13% chance
Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2027 be composed by AI?
69% chance
Will a fully AI-generated song reach Billboard Top 10 by 2027?
4/18/27
Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?
51% chance